MILAN – Safras & Mercado Friday lowered its estimate for Brazil coffee production in CY 2024/25. With the harvest now about three-quarters complete (74% as of 16 July), Brazil’s authoritative agricultural analyst announced an overall downward revision of its crop estimate by over 4 million bags to 66 million, a figure that slightly exceeds that of last year’s crop, estimated at 65.58 million.
The Arabica crop is now forecast at about 45 million, down from the initially estimated 47 million, a figure only 3% higher than the 2023/24 crop. The Robusta crop is estimated at 20.7 million, down about 3% from last year.
“The production of canephora (conillon and Robusta) was the one that revealed the most losses in comparison to the preliminary idea” writes Safras & Mercado in its report. “Temperatures well above average and the dry period at the end of last year, at a critical moment for crop development, ended up compromising the productivity of coffee plantations, mainly in Espírito Santo.
The initial estimate indicated that Brazilian production of canephora would reach 23.32 mln 60-kg bags, but, due to climate problems, production fell short of its potential. Therefore, the crop forecast was adjusted to 20.70 mln bags, which accounts for an 11% decline from the preliminary estimate.”
Particularly disappointing were the figure of Espírito Santo, where production was expected to be in line with the 2022/23 crop.
However, the irregular crop development harmed productivity, with consequences on both output and bean size.
This explains the cut of more than 2 million bags between the initial expectation of 17 million and the current idea of 14.90 million for conillon coffee in Espírito Santo, which could undergo further downward adjustments, Safras & Mercado adds.
“While indications of losses in canephora production have been emerging since the beginning of the season, losses in Brazilian arabica production have only become more evident in recent weeks, given the acceleration of the harvest,” reports the analyst.
Although in other regions the adjustments were limited – in some cases even positive – the south of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest production area, was affected to a much greater extent by the sequence of days with temperatures well above average.
“There was no miscarriage, as happens with water stress, which hindered the perception of losses, continue the report”
“With around 60% of the expected crop already reaped, more and more producers report a result below expectations. The initial expectation for the south of Minas Gerais was 19 mln bags, below the almost 21 mln bags reaped in the exceptional year of 20/21 but still a large crop, repeating the 18/19 crop.
However, the current idea is that the South Gerais of Minas will crop only 17.40 mln bags, less than the 17.50 mln bags reaped last year.”
The estimate for Brazil’s overall coffee production was consequently reduced to just over 66 million bags, some 4 million below the preliminary forecast and roughly in line with last year’s production of 65.58 million.
