MILAN – A recent study assessing Uganda’s vulnerability to climate change shows that Arabica coffee is the crop that is likely to be impacted the most by climate variability. The Uganda Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, dated August 2013, was produced for the US Agency for International Development (USAID) by Tetra Tech ARD.
During the coming decades Uganda’s agricultural households will continue to face significant challenges, including a deteriorating natural resource base and eroding ecosystem services, and reduced access to land due to a rapidly rising population – in addition to the ongoing threats of conflict and economic crisis.
While fully recognizing the importance of all of these factors, this assessment focuses on the additional pressure that Uganda’s agricultural households will face as a result of current and potential future impacts of climate change.
The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)/African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) Project conducted the Uganda Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in 2012.
Field research focused on Gulu, Lira, Luweero, Mbale, Isingiro, and Kasese – six USAID/Feed the Future priority districts that include important cropping systems, represent different agro-ecological zones, and are near weather stations that have collected consistent rainfall and temperature data.
The study employed a mixed-method approach that included historical climate analysis and projections; a value chain analysis of eight key crops and a phenological review (i.e., how climate change affects the growth cycle of each of those crops); a livelihood survey of 800 households; 80 focus group discussions; key informant interviews with representatives from district and national levels; and a desktop assessment of water use for agriculture.
Of the crops analyzed in this assessment, Arabica coffee is the most vulnerable, while cassava is the least. Overall, from most to least sensitive crops, they are: Arabica Coffee, robusta coffee, rice, maize, East African Highland Banana (matooke), beans, sorghum, sweet potatoes, and cassava.
Coffee crops are threatened by rising temperatures and erratic rainfall increasing the risk of disease and pest infestations.
This research and analysis show how current climate patterns shape—and how future climate patterns may influence—key crop value chains and the livelihoods of households that depend on them.
Along with the results of this assessment, this report includes recommendations enriched by options generated by key stakeholders from government, donor agencies, research organizations, and civil society during a participatory multi-stakeholder options analysis meeting that took place in Uganda on January 31, 2013.
You can download the publication at this link.
