The Agricultural Trade Office (ATO) in São Paulo revised the Brazilian coffee production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2015/16 (July-June) to 49.4 million 60-kg bags, green equivalent, a nine percent reduction compared to the revised estimate for MY 2014/15 (54.3 million bags), the result of below average yields and smaller size of the beans in some growing areas.
Arabica production is estimated at 36.1 million bags, whereas Robusta output is estimated at 13.3 million bags.
The harvest was virtually completed in October. Local industry reports that bean size this year is below average compared to the previous crop and bean quality was somewhat impacted by rainfall during the harvest in some areas.
Area harvested and tree inventory estimates remain unchanged. ATO/São Paulo revised production estimates for MY 2013/14 and MY 2014/15 up to 57.2 and 54.3 million bags, respectively, because of plentiful carry-over stocks.
In September 2015, the Brazilian government (GOB), through the National Supply Company (CONAB) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), released the third official coffee production estimate for MY 2015/16.
As reported by CONAB, coffee production is estimated at 42.15 million bags (31.3 million bags for Arabica and 10.85 million for Robusta coffee), down 2.13 million bags from the previous estimate in June 2015.
The September 2015 coffee production estimate for MY 2015/16 released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) shows the production of 2.570 million metric tons of coffee, or 42.84 million 60-kg bags (32.3 million bags for Arabica and 10.54 million for Robusta coffee), a five percent drop vis-Ã -vis MY 2014/15 (45.15 million bags).
No official forecast has been announced for MY 2015/16. Coffee Prices in the Domestic Market.
Coffee prices in local currency have remained stable during 2015 (January-October), but increased approximately nine percent relative to the same period in 2014 due to expectation of a significant reduction in the coffee crop for both the 2014 and 2015 crops.
Coffee prices in U.S. dollars in 2015 (January-October) dropped by 23 percent (US$ 137.90/bag) compared to US$ 178.19/bag during the same period in 2014, the result of the sharp devaluation of the Brazilian Real.
Consumption
ATO/São Paulo adjusted downward our estimate for domestic coffee consumption in MY 2015/16 to 20.33 million coffee bags, equivalent to MY 2014/15, to reflect stable consumption.
Trade
The estimate for Brazilian coffee exports in MY 2015/16 remains unchanged at 33.33 million bags, down 3.24 million bags from the previous marketing year, due to expected lower product availability.
Green bean exports are expected to contribute 30 million bags, while soluble coffee exports are estimated at 3.3 million bags.
Coffee exports for MY 2014/15 were revised up to a historical record of 36.57 million 60-kg bags, green beans, up 2.44 million bags from previous season, based on updated information from the industry.
Green bean (arabica and robusta) exports are estimated at 33.05 million bags, whereas soluble coffee exports are estimated at 3.49 million bags.
