WASHINGTON, USA – USDA revises downward its production, export and consumption estimates for 2024/25. In its biannual World Production, Markets, and Trade Report, released on Wednesday, 18 December, the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegs world coffee production at 174.855 million bags (compared to 176.235 million estimated last June), up 6.9 million from 174.9 million in 2023/24.
The estimate for Brazilian production was cut sharply to 66.4 million bags, slightly higher than last year. On the other hand, USDA is optimistic about Vietnam, where production is forecast to rise from 27.5 million in 2023/24 to 30.1 million. This outlook is at odds with that of almost all other sources, which forecast a further decline in production for the Indochinese country.
Estimates for Colombia and Indonesia have also been revised upwards, to 12.9 million and 10.9 million respectively.
Ethiopia is down slightly to 8.36 million and Uganda is stable at 6.4 million. India and Honduras recovered slightly to 6.2 and 5.4 million respectively.
The estimate for world Arabica production was cut by around 2 million bags compared to June and is now seen at 97.845 million, up from 96.379 million in 2023/24.
On the other hand, the Robusta production forecast was revised upwards to 77.01 million bags, up significantly from 71.625 million in 2023/24.
Despite a slight downward revision, world exports are still expected to rise by almost 1.4 million to 144.857 million in 2024/25, reports USDA
Brazil’s exports will fall from a record 46.75 million in 2023/24 to 44.25 million in 2024/25, while Vietnam’s will rise by 2.3 million to 27.3 million. Colombia’s shipments will reach 12 million (+240 thousand bags).
Indonesia’s exports will recover by 2.2 million to 7.55 million. India will fall to 6.54 million (-336 thousand bags). Uganda remains stable at 6.3 million.
Despite a cut of more than 2.5 million from the June estimate, consumption is seen at 168.071 million: over 5 million more than in 2023/24.
The European Union remains the world’s largest market, with consumption of 42.046 million in 2024/25, up 2.439 million on the previous year. Consumption in the United States will grow much less than initially thought, from 23.55 million in 2023/24 to 23.95 million in 2024/25.
Ending stocks are expected to drop 1.5 million bags to 20.9 million.
