HANOI, Vietnam – The prices of Vietnamese coffee are forecast to continue to increase next year due to severe supply shortage, according to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa). Đỗ Hà Nam, Vicofa’s Deputy President, said that unpredictable coffee price fluctuations caused difficulties in exporting.
In the 2022-23 crops, several domestic exporters could not deliver in time because of rising prices, partly as an impact of hoarding. “During the past three decades, never have we thought that Vietnam could be in a shortage of coffee,” Nam said.
The association has estimated that the coffee shortage of signed contracts is around 80,000 – 150,000 tonnes, waiting for the coming harvest season to be fulfilled.
Vietnam exported more than 120,000 tonnes of coffee in November, half of which was to make up for the shortage of orders of the previous harvest crop, he said.
Coffee prices are forecast to be around VNĐ60,000 – 70,000 per kg in the coming months and are expected to decrease when Indonesia and Brazil start new coffee harvest seasons in April and May.
In the new crop, the asking prices of green coffee reached VNĐ60,000 per kg for delivery in December 2023 and January 2024 – an unprecedented price recorded at the beginning of harvest season due to high purchasing demand from export enterprises who are worried that there would be no coffee to buy from April or May next year. In 2023, coffee was out of stock from June.
According to Vicofa the European markets are the largest market for Vietnamese coffee, which consume around 40-50 per cent of the country’s exports and still have good demand for coffee.
“There will be tension in coffee supply sources. Việt Nam’s green coffee prices will continue to increase in 2024 and is poised for a record export revenue of $5 billion,” Nam said. This, however, causes a problem – enterprises are hoarding, which will bring significant risks.
In the context of tense supply, Nam said that Vietnam was focusing on solutions to promote the sustainable development of the coffee industry, including ensuring origin traceability and meeting the EU’s regulations on deforestation.
