SAO PAULO, Brazil – Prices for both robusta and arabica coffee increased significantly in 2024, writes Cepea in its latest report. Unfavorable climate conditions (dry and warm weather) during most part of the year, below-expected production in Brazil (which reduced inventories) and the smaller volume in Vietnam are some of the facts that boosted quotations.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the robusta type 6, screen 13, EspÃrito Santo, hit constant records of Cepea series (since November 2001).
The monthly average of this Index changed from BRL 740 per 60-kg bag in December/23 to BRL 1,800/bag in December 2024. As for arabica, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, hit the highest level since 1997 – in one year, the average of this Index rose from BRL 970/bag to BRL 2,000/bag.
Robusta price rises were in the spotlight since they were above arabica values from late August to early September. Up until then, considering Cepea series for both coffee varieties, robusta quotations operated above arabica values just once, from October 2016 to January 2017.
Robusta values have started 2024 in an upward trend, influenced by aspects in both the international and the domestic markets. The firm international demand for the robusta from Brazil, which had been observed since late 2023, continued firm in practically the entire year of 2024. Attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea affected the coffee supply from Vietnam in Europe, which allocated international purchasers to Brazil.
In early 2024, the demand was firm and the rainy weather was favoring crops, with good perspectives for the 2024/25 harvest. However, the rainfall was scarce after April, affecting the crops’ final development. Despite the rainy summer, plants faced several problems, specially related to high temperatures.
Conab indicates that the 2024/25 coffee season totaled 54.8 million bags in Brazil, 0.5% down compared to the crop before (2023/24). The arabica production was estimated at 39.5 million bags (+1.7%) and robusta at 15.2 million bags (-6%).
Coffee shipments of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to June/24) hit the record of 47.4 million bags, upping 33.3% in relation to the crop before, according to data from Cecafé. The good results are linked to the high demand for the national product, specially robusta coffee – exports of this variety amounted 8.24 million bags, the highest in history, taking the series from Cecafé into account.
