The world coffee balance will see a second successive supply deficit next season, according to Winterthur, Switzerland-based Volcafe. This has not happened since the 1990s.
The company, which is part of commodities trader ED & F Man, expects supply to fall short of demand by as much as 8.9 million bags this season, or the biggest deficit in nine years. In 2015/16 the shortfall will shrink to 1.5 million bags on higher production in Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia.
World production for the next coffee year is forecast at 152.8 million bags, up 10.6 million bags on year.
Volcafe sees Brazil’s next coffee crop at 49.5 million bags, up 2.5% on year. Vietnam could harvest a bumper crop of 30.6 million bags, while Colombia is expected to reach its best output in seven years.
Olam International’s CEO and co-founder Sunny Verghese foresaw a deficit “next year of 5-6 million bags”, following a shortfall ” of 4m-5m bags” this coffee year.
