MILAN – The world coffee market will be back to a supply surplus in coffee year 2018/19, whilst prices will rise by the end of the year as countries restock inventories, according to a survey led by Reuters.
The international news agency interviewed 14 traders and analysts from the coffee sector.
The median forecast estimated global coffee supplies at a deficit of 3.15 million 60-kg bags in coffee year 2017/18 (October/September).
Expectations are that the market will shift to a 4 million bag surplus in 2018/19 on the back of a record crop in Brazil.
In fact, the world’s largest coffee grower is seen producing a bumper crop of 60 million bags including 44 million bags of the Arabica variety, the median result from the survey showed.
Estimates range from 55 to 65 million bags. The first official forecast for crop year 2018/19 issued in mid-January by Conab pegs Brazilian production between 54.44 and 58.51 million bags.
Vietnam, the world’s biggest grower of robusta, should harvest 28.5 million bags of coffee in 2017-18, with estimates ranging from 27 million to 30 million bags, the survey also revealed.
Spot arabica coffee prices were forecast to end the first quarter of 2018 at $1.25 per lb, down 1 percent from the end of 2017. They were pegged finishing the calendar year at $1.344, up 6.5 percent from end-2017, with estimates ranging from $1 to $1.85.
